Global financial crisis impact on Egypt

Global financial crisis impact on Egypt The world economy is currently going through a serious financial disturbance that sparked off in the United States and has spread to Europe and the rest of the world. The crisis has already led to the collapse of powerful banks and firms as well as to recession in several countries, some consider such consequences as just the tip of the iceberg and that the worst is yet to come. This paper aims to study the current global financial crisis and its impact on Egypt. To do so, it first presents an overview of the causes and consequences of the current instability, followed by an assessment of the depth of the crisis and its implications on the Egyptian economy, the paper highlights the actions taken by the Egyptian government to cope with the effects of the crisis on the Egyptian economy. Outline Introduction Literature Review The Nature of The Financial Crisis The starting of the financial crisis Spreading of financial crisis Effect of The Crisis The effect on USA The effect on Europe The Effect on Asia The policies taken to overcome the financial crisis in different countries In USA In Europe In Asia The impact on the Egyptian economy When did the crisis started to effect the Egyptian economy and which sector started first Financial sector Balance of payment State budget The polices undertaken to overcome the financial crisis in Egypt Increase the government expenditure Decrease custom duties and tariffs Decrease taxes affecting investment Increase expenditure on public good Encourage Egyptian entrepreneurs Conclusion References Introduction: On the border of bankruptcy many giant investment banks and insurance companies around the globe are losing severely to the stock markets till there was no more liquid money available to finance business activities all due to the Financial Crisis, which is the most grave since the Great Depression in the 1930s. In 2008-2009, much of the industrialized world entered into a deep recession due to a financial crisis that had its origin in unprofessional lending practices involving the origination and distribution of mortgage debt in USA. Egypt was not far from this crisis, during the second half of 2008, the financial crises effects start to appear in the Egyptian economy in many fields. This global financial crisis led to slowdown the Egyptian economy due to the global economic recession; Economists expected a decline in the GDP growth rate during 2009, also trade will be affected badly. Due to the globalization; Egyptian stock market was affected by the decrease in price per share of the companies that participate in the Egyptian stock market, which affected the investors badly because of huge transactions of selling the shares by the foreign share holder The Egyptian economists expected a decrease GDP, which lead to problem in financing of some projects. Due to the balance of payment deficit, the Government initiated broadcast tranquility in the hearts of investors, to clarify the steps of successful growth within the economic reform program in previous years. All this factors lead to some expectations; first a sharp decrease in Egyptian exports, foreign investments, Suez Canal and Tourism revenues. The Egyptian government has taken some steps to face this crisis on the Egyptian economy, such as increasing the government expenditure by 15 billion LE, especially for financing new infrastructure projects. The Government also decreased the taxes and trade barriers to motivate local and foreign investors to invest in Egypt. But what are the causes of this crisis? And when did it really start? What actions taken to withstand this crisis? How is it going to affect developing countries? We will try to clarify these issues in a simplified manner, by concentrating on Egypt as a developing country. The global financial crisis Economists started to anticipate a vigorous financial crisis that would strike the American economy during Ronald Regan presidency, who could be known as one of the prophets and defenders of capitalism, in which he avoided using the methods proposed by the Keynesian school of thought, replacing them with Von Hayeks free market mechanism, by leaving everything to the market with minimum government intervention, and by saying everything we also include the banking sector, that had been imposed to intense forms of deregulation. (Foley, 2007) Regans regime could be considered as the early development of this financial bubble that is erupting right now, after George W. Bush has accelerated it by promising his voters that he will fulfill the American Dream of owning a house, so he gave credit unions, investment banks, and other financial institutions the absolute freedom to give out loans at high rates, these loans had various names such as credit default swaps and subprime mortgages. (Lendman) Subprime mortgages are new instruments in the financial sector that are manifested to make home ownership chances available to borrowers in the US, not following the traditional rules and regulations investment banks gave those subprime loans, that could also be known as Ninja loans, to borrowers that have; low incomes, no assets, no constant job, limited disposable incomes, and bad credit history. These subprime mortgages are not only considered risky because of the borrowers but also because they are set out on variable interest rates, which will make the monthly payments, paid by the borrowers to vary in monthly basis making it impossible for them to continue on paying their installments. (BLACKBURN) Financial institutions were giving the credit of these subprime mortgages assuming that property prices shall not stop appreciating in its value. Putting in mind that some borrowers could fail to pay, the banks believed that generally the market would be in its favor. As the prices of housing market started to cool down, leaving the banks with greatly undervalued assets, due to the rising rates of the money market. The banks that issued these subprime mortgages initially, did not actually record them on their balance sheets, instead they packaged them with prime mortgages and a spectrum of other assets, into a mortgage baked security MBS, to be traded in the market. The setback was that assets with dissimilar risk profiles were sold together and on the other hand received an AAA grading, making them appealing to global investors especially Europeans, causing the crisis to spread out internationally. (BLACKBURN) And when these subprime borrowers were no more able to repay their mortgages, the issuing institution needed to finance the foreclosure with their own money, bringing the asset back on the balance sheet. This left many banks in a financially unviable situation, in a rather short, unmanageable timeframe. And, the fact that nobody knew how much more of those MBS would return on their balance sheets, banks effectively stopped lending to each other, drying up liquidity substantially, both in the US and in Europe. (McGirr, 2008) The United States GDP decreased at an annual rate of approximately 6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009, versus activity in the year ago periods. The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 10.2% by October 2009, the highest rate since 1983 and roughly twice the pre crisis rate. The average hours per work week declined to 33, the lowest level since the government began collecting the data in 1964. (Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Corporate Profits) The European Union GDP decreased by 2.1% from the years 2007 to 2008, which in 2008 the GDP reached 0.9 %, the unemployment rate has increased from 7.2% to 8.5 % in the years from 2007 to 2009, the exports have increased from 1.33 trillion to 1.95 trillion dollars, and the imports have increased from 1.46 trillion to 1.69 trillion dollars, the inflation rate have increased from 1.8% to 3% from 2006 to 2008. (book) Asias GDP decreased by 0.9% from the years 2008 to 2009, which in 2008 the GDP reached 7.6%, the unemployment rate has increased from 7.4%to 7.7%in the years from 2008 to 2009, and the exports have decreased from 49% to 35% of the GDP from the year 2007 to 2008, the imports have decreased from 40 % to 29% of the GDP from the year 2007 to 2008, the inflation rate have increased from 6% to 7.9% from the year 2007 to 2008. (Economics and Statistics) Policy responses: in USA To stabilize the financial system, more regulations from the central bank and control on banks, banks Competition should be eliminated like decrease interest rates to increase investment, decrease taxes, to increase investment and productivity and Increase government spending to increase aggregate demand, to increase production, to decrease unemployment. The Federal Reserves decreased the fed funds rates after January 1st in 2008. (Late 2000s recession) President George bush proposed to the government to purchase up to $700 billion troubled mortgage-related assets from financial firms in hopes of improving confidence. The first half of the money was used to buy preferred stick in banks instead of troubled mortgage assets. (Late 2000s recession) In January 2009, the American recovery and reinvestments act of 2009 signed by president Obama to provide a stimulus to the U.S. economy in the wake of the economic downturn.(Late 2000s recession) The act includes federal tax cuts, expansion of unemployment benefits and domestic spending in education, healthcare and infrastructure. Also, tax cuts led to increase in investment and decrease in unemployment (expansionary fiscal policy).(Late 2000s recession) The Federal Reserves facilitated lending to banks by lowering the discount rate to increase liquidity in banks. (Late 2000s recession) Part of an effort to increase dollar liquidity around the world the fed coordinated with other central banks to land simultaneously financial institutions (banks) with it cannot lend directly.(Late 2000s recession) Asia-pacific policy responses On September 15th 2008, china cuts its interest rates for the first time since 2002 and Government spending plan to invest $586 billion in infrastructure and social welfare by the end of 2010. (Late 2000s recession) The increase in investment will be in housing, rural infrastructure, health and education, environment, industry, tax cuts. Therefore unemployment will decrease and economic growth will increase and GDP will increase ( as its exports to Europe and USA decrease) so china decrease its interest rates to increase investment , to increase aggregate demand (Late 2000s recession) Indonesia reduced its discounts rate at which commercial banks can borrow funds for the central bank, on the other hand the reserve bank of Australia injected $1.5 billion dollars into the banking system, meanwhile the reserve bank of India injected almost 1.3 billion, and bank of Japan pumped $29.3 billion in the financial system on the 16th of September 2008. (Late 2000s recession) European policy responses: From September, the European commission proposed a 200 billion Euros stimulus plan to be implemented at the European level by the countries and each country got its plan to increase money supply and liquidity. (Late 2000s recession) The impact of the global financial crisis on the Egyptian economy During the last two decades Egypt has implemented an economic reform program (ERSAP); this program targets to stabilize the Egyptian economy and achieving a high gross rate. The implementation of this program increased the gross rate to reach 5.9% in 1999/2000 compared to 1.9% in 1991/1992. (Ramadan, 2009) Effects of The reform have started to appear strongly during the last five years, where the unemployment rate falls from 11.2 % in 2004/2005 to 8.4 % in 2007/2008. Also the foreign direct investment recorded 13.2 billion dollar which represent 81% of the GDP during 2007/2008 compared to 400 million dollar in 2003/2004 which represent 0.5% of the GDP. Egypt succeeded in implementing the right policies to achieve its target where the GDP in Egypt achieved a high growth rates during the last period amounted to 6.8%, 7.1% and 7.2% during the years 2005/2006, 2006/2007, 2007/2008. (Ramadan, 2009) But during the second half of 2008, the financial crises effects started to appear in the Egyptian economy in many fields. This global financial crisis led to slowdown the Egyptian economy due to the global economic recession; Economists expected a decline in the GDP growth rate during 2009 to reach 4%. Also trade will be affected badly since 75% of Egyptian GDP is from trade divided as follows; about 32% of our exports go to the United States and 32.5% of imports come from United States and the European Union. Economists also expected a sharp decrease in foreign investment, where the two thirds of foreign investment in Egypt during the past two years were from America and Europe. (Abouhbaishe, 2008) Ministry of Economic Development expects that the net losses resulting from the crisis will be more than 4 billion dollars during 2008/2009. While the most affected sectors will be the industrial sector. Due to the decrease in demand on the products, factories will reduce their production, which reduces the purchasing power of the per capita, leading to stagnation in the market. (Abouhbaishe, 2008) Egyptian budget will be affected negatively due to several reasons during 2009. First the oil balance will decrease by one billion dollars because the oil prices fell from $ 147 per barrel to 39.5 dollars per barrel, second reason is the sharp decrease in remittances from Egyptians abroad by $ 600 million and the third reason is the decline in tourism revenues by more than 2 billion dollars, which negatively affected all economic activities associated with tourism (Construction Furniture food industries etc). (Abouhbaishe, 2008) The impact of financial crisis on the Egyptian banking system is limited for several reasons; The integration of the Egyptian financial sector in the global financial system is still limited and the Egyptian banking system did not strongly integrated into the global system. Also the central bank adopted the Egyptian plan for reforming the banking system during the period 2004-2008, which encouraged mergers to create strong banking entities. The controls established by the central bank of Egypt for crediting and lending value to ensure liquidity. Also the Banks investments in securities and in mortgage finance were limited, by a percentage not exceeding 5% of the total loan portfolio of the bank. (Abouhbaishe, 2008) The Egyptian government has taken some steps to face this crisis on the Egyptian economy, such as increasing the government expenditure by 15 billion LE, especially for financing new infrastructure projects. The Government also decreased the taxes and trade barriers to motivate local and foreign investors to invest in Egypt. The central bank adopted some polices, which is strengthening of bank supervision, restructuring, and a cleanup of nonperforming loans to protect the financial system in Egypt. Although actions taken by the government to absorb the crises did not show any results, but this was the best way to take for a small developing country like Egypt. Finally Egypt still has some big economic problems that will continue to suffer from in the next several years. (Ramadan, 2009)

Ethical considerations Essay

Deception; the participants were not aware that they were taking part in a psychological study about memory until after the study had taken place in order to reduce the risk of bias in the experiment. Afterwards they were informed and were given the opportunity to withdraw their responses without prejudice. They were told that no names would be recorded and that confidentiality was assured of their result. Another risk would be if people then realised the experiment tested memory they could think it was to do with intelligence and worry that they would be judged as stupid’ if they did not remember many words. This could cause psychological distress to that person and might confirm personal fears of insecurity causing further damage. This could be controlled by warning the participant what the study was going to be about before they did it so if they felt embarrassed or worried about their result they could make a more informed decision not to take part. Results This table shows how many words were recalled by each participant. It shows that the mean average number of words recalled in Condition A was 15.08; 1.59 less than condition B at 16.67. It also allows us to see that 2/3 of the participants recalled more words with classical music playing than they did in silence.  Summary table to show the number of words recalled by each participant in condition A and. Condition B This bar chart shows condition A results in red and condition B in green. From this we can see that both the highest and lowest numbers of words recalled were in condition B. This bar chart clearly demonstrates the difference between condition A and B to vary greatly throughout the experiment.  This pie chart shows the difference between the average scores to be quite insignificant as there is only a 5 % difference which means that although most of the numbers of words recalled did increase from condition a to condition b there was not a big difference when taking into account what their scores actually were and working out the average. I also deduced the range to be 12 for condition A, the lowest/ highest values being 8 and 20, and 17 for condition B, the lowest/ highest values being 7 and 24. The median, however, for both was the same at 16.5. This means there was a wider spread list of values for condition B therefore more variation in how many words people remembered than in condition A.  However the descriptive statistics used above only describe what has been found. In order to suggest the probability of achieving the scores that we did, an inferential sign test was used. A sign test was used as the experimental design was a repeated measures design and the data collected was nominal. When we applied our raw data to the sign test analysis a sign value of 4 was achieved. As this exceeds the critical value of 2, for 12 participants, we can suggest that the raw data achieved is more than 5% due to chance factors and less than 95% due to the manipulation of the independent variable which means our original hypothesis is only partially supported. Discussion From the results obtained in this experiment, we can suggest that our one tailed experimental hypothesis of ‘playing classical music during a memory test will increase the number of words remembered’, is only partially supported, in that only 2/3 (66.67%) of participants recall improved when tested with classical music. This was not found to achieve a significant level of probability < 0.05, which means that recall was not 95% or more due to the manipulation of the independent variable i.e. whether or not classical music was playing in the background. Therefore on this occasion we must accept our null hypothesis of ‘there will be no significant relationship between whether or not music is played in the background and how many words the participants remember’ as there was not a high enough probability to suggest that the variation in number of words recalled was a direct effect of the manipulation of the independent variable. In our experiment we found that classical music did improve performance of memory as 2/3 of the participants recall improved. This disagrees with the findings of Cohen whose study suggested that participants who were exposed to background noise were cognitively impaired. Our experiment was similar to Cohen’s in that it tested the effect of environmental stimulants on recall ability. Cohen, however, tested the participants under exposure to aircraft noise which is much louder and more distracting than a relaxing piece of music such as Mozart. Our findings, therefore, may be more appropriately compared to the findings of Dr. George Lozanov. Lozanov designed a way to teach foreign languages to children in a fraction of the learning time. He did this by teaching whilst using certain 60 beats per minute Baroque music and found that his students had a retention rate of 92% and an accuracy of 85- 100% after only thirty days. The findings of which reflect our own in that he used classical music, with the typical 60 beat per minute pattern, to improve performance of memory in the recollection of vocabulary in foreign languages. However, the percentage of improvement in his experiment was 92%, whereas ours was only 66.67% and therefore shows that his experiment was more accurate than our own However, as our participants were young adults and not children, as in the above, direct and reliable comparisons may not be fully appropriate. This could be due to wider social influences upon adults in relation to children for example a young adult would understand the instructions better and therefore might feel under more pressure to perform than a child. This could have adverse effects and make their performance worse or make them try harder than a child would. Due to this ignorance on the child’s behalf, an experiment involving children is often more natural. Also, differences in procedure and experimental design may have led to the difference in findings. For example Lozanov choose to teach foreign languages to children and it has been proven that children have a higher capacity than adults for learning language, as they are not as set in speaking their own language as an adult is. The differences found may have related to this factor and so had an effect upon the data that we achieved. If my experiment had been carried out on children instead I think I would have gotten more positive results due to the above reasons. Other limitations include our choice of method; an experiment is not a natural setting as participants would feel pressurised by the fact that their results were being analysed and might have not been able to concentrate on recalling the words. An improvement could have been a test administered by a normal teacher in a classroom environment, where students would be more used to getting a test and might be more relaxed. This would be unethical, however as it is deceptive. The repeated measures design used meant that the list of words in the second experiment had to be changed because the same participants had seen it in the first experiment and therefore might recall more words after looking at it for a second time. This would have meant the results were inaccurate therefore another list of words was devised. This could however have caused even more problems because, although care was taken not to use more confusing or longer words from one list to another, the experiment was not standardised and therefore direct comparisons could not be made. A matched pairs design would have allowed comparisons to be made between the lists, but not as accurately between the participants, as every participant will be different. The opportunity based sample that I used meant that there weren’t an equal number of males and females, therefore it wasn’t representative. A better sampling technique would be to use stratified sampling, in which equal numbers of the same sex can be selected. If the target population was larger, the sample would have been more representative but we needed to use similarly aged participants, as there would have been difference in recall ability between, for example, a four and an eighteen year old. Using people from our own class could have interfered with the result because the participants knew who they were doing the experiment for and could be biased to the experimenter. Also, I think that using younger participants would have given a more natural element to the experiment, as they would not ask too many questions, worry about the results or interfere as much with the experiment by not trying their best. The participants did not seem to be confused by the standardised instructions but they might not have been clear on why they were doing the experiment, which could have had an effect on their performance. The participants were also talked through the experiment as we carried it out and everything was plainly stated to them. A better way of presentation of the words however, might have been to present them on an over head projector, so that timing could be controlled better; in our experiment, participants were in control of turning over the sheet of paper with the list on and therefore could have turned it over before the test started. The paper was only one sheet thick as well so participants might have been able to see the words even when the sheet was face down. To expand the experiment further, there are many different variables and different aspects of memory which I could test. The serial position effect, mentioned in my introduction, would be an interesting aspect of memory to test as I noticed in the lists of words there were a significant number of words from the start and the end of the actual list, included in the words the participants remembered. We could test this by setting a quota at, say, the first five and last five words and seeing what percentage of the recalled words were within one of these quotas. We could have used a recording of background noise to repeat Cohen’s experiment or used music with words to test the participants. A really interesting experiment would be to use children against adults in a memory test with the classical music, as I believe children would give a more positive result in relation to my hypothesis. I don’t believe that there would be a significant difference between males and females, if any, but it would be worth considering. We could have tested different amounts of words see if there is a difference in capacity of recall between a list of one hundred words and thirty words; would the participants be put off by the amount of words and not remember as many for the long list as the short? There are clearly many different experiments relating to memory that could be tested.

Historical, Physical, Sociocultural And Phycological

This exhibition is inspired by the theme Memory focusing on Art as Navigation- A Matter of Time and Place and is taking place in Perc Tucker Reginal Gallery. Navigation is the process or activity of accurately ascertaining one s position and planning and following a route. Navigation can be viewed in several contexts; Historical, Physical, Sociocultural and Phycological. In this exhibition, the context of Art as Navigation will be focusing more on the phycological element of navigation. The way Art as Navigation is viewed is through a cognitive development of achievement and understanding of knowledge, formation of beliefs and attitudes, and decision making and problem solving. It is the journey one takes either with going back to the†¦show more content†¦The Decameron was named after one of Songsong’s favorite books written by Giovanni Boccaccio in the mid-14th century that consisted of a collection of 100 stories told by 10 different characters over 10 days. The si gnificances of this stories are that they all surround the similar theme. Songsong used Boccaccio’s concept and applied to his work by interpreting an outsourced public photo of the 2004 National People’s Congress. Songsong enlarged the NPC 2004 photo and cut it into 10 sections and painted each section individually. When placed together the original photo could be seen at a larger scale. Songsong’s second piece is Cuban Sugar which is a representation of an image of when China went through a domestic sugar cane production. Its titled the Cuban Sugar as a representation of this event reflecting the political conflict of interest through fractured independent sections of the full piece of work. Completing Songsong’s painting are individual sections within the painting with different texture and color, suggesting a layered and disjoint between China and Cuba and their historical interpretation. The second artist featured in this exhibition with amazing art pieces inspired by his childhood memories and materials is, Mark Bradford. Bradford was born in Southern California in what is considered the ‘hood’ of California. Bradford has received both Bachelor and Master in Fine Arts from the California Institute of the Arts in Valencia.

Chapter 6 Study Questions Essay - 1598 Words

1. Define deviance. How does this definition differ from how sociologists define deviance? Deviance is behavior or characteristics that violate important social norms. The difference between how the dictionary defines deviance and how sociologist define deviance is what may be deviant in one place, at one particular time, may not be deviant in another place and time. Basically with times changing something may or may not be tolerated as acceptable behavior. 2. What is situational deviance? Are there different degrees of deviance? Explain. Situational deviance is relative to a particular setting as well as dependent upon who is doing the defining. There are different degrees of deviance, there’s individual and system blame. The†¦show more content†¦9. Define and describe, in your own words, the deviance theories of individual blame and system blame. The individual blame theory states that the average beliefs of society are correct which creates balance and happiness in society. The theory of system blame states that more powerful individuals attempt to force their views of right and wrong to powerless individuals. 10. Note some criticisms attached to each theory? Some of the criticisms attached to each theory is biological, psychological, and sociological theories. 11. According to Freud, what causes deviance? Freud believed that deviant behavior is the result of an underdeveloped ego. 12. According to Banefield, what causes deviance? Banefield believed that deviant behavior was caused by lower socioeconomic groups in society developing a different value system. 13. Merton refers to innovation, ritualism, retreatists, and rebels. Explain each term, in your own words, and provide examples for each. 14. How does labeling affect an individual? Labeling will more likely cause an individual to become deviant when social groups label them as such. 15. Note the difference between, and give examples of, primary and secondary deviance? 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